We are doomed - 103 reasons why

 [Ed note - this was written a few months after Trump's election, with occasional editing in brackets since then to update and add more reasons!  It started with 99 reasons.)

103 reasons we* are doomed in America (and I fear for other democratic countries, too.

(For the optimists out there, please give me your 103 reasons we are not doomed! Specific to America, not things like "the sun", "the earth", etc. ) Bless the optimists...

After the first ten, the list is random.

1. Capitalism - it just isn't sustainable in any way, but boy does it lead to a lot of great stuff and some really scary stuff. And way too much trash and waste. (Which totally relates to number 2 and 3 below which are certainly the most scary outcomes of capitalism.)

2. Climate Change (ocean rise, glaciers melting, heat, cold, flood, droughts, stronger hurricanes, more intense fires, et. al. and refugees in the tens of millions)

3. The rise of the AI - 3.  massive disruption and we are not aligned! (This is totally integrated with #1 and should probably be in the #2 position now since Chat GPT 4 came out.)

4. Supreme Court is going down - particularly that the Republicans stole a seat (and also stole about 50 appellate court seats) [edited to add - and another one]

5. The electoral college

6. Gerrymandering brought by the right (and occasionally the left)

7. Congress: particularly the Republicans refusal to compromise on most everything important

8. Trump/Republicans and the fact that so many Americans - about 43% - think Trump is great

9. The coming refugee crisis (as if the one that exists isn't already very bad) as climate change forces migration

10. Voter suppression efforts of the right

11. Most people thinking they have the truth and do not want compromise - left and right

12. Fake news - left and right (and see #23)

13. The internet: GAFA (google, amazon, Facebook, apple) - the dystopian future described in sci-fi works has arrived - the death of privacy, the rise of social media bullying, easy-as-pie mass surveillance, deepfakes, hacking - Russian and malicious, malware, ransomware, ad nauseam.

14. Seeing the past through today's eyes - this is particularly strong tendency on the left. The logic of this will lead us to reject every single person in the past for being "not woke". This thoughtless ahistorical perspective warps the entire past and, more so, the present.

15. Overuse of toxic chemicals like pesticides - and they are everywhere

16. Big pharma

17. NIMBYs

18. Death of public education as we used to know it

19. Bail, traffic tickets, payday loans, parking ticket/impound, lack of access to inexpensive food, decent housing, health care, etc. for poor people - which helps to keep them poor.

20. Fear of black people, particularly black men - which has warped our criminal justice system. A very significant portion of black Americans who are incarcerated are there because of prosecutorial misconduct and mistaken identity.

21. Prisons in America - way too many people incarcerated, way too little rehabilitation

22. College debt

23. Stupidity - remember 100 is the average on IQ tests.

24. Tribalism left and right

25. Guns and gun laws

26. Planned obsolescence

27. Consumerism

28. Smart phones being way too important in too many people's lives

29. Household debt - there is more than there was before the 2008 crash.

30. The increasing threat of violence, right and left

32. The criminal justice system is really the criminal injustice system where truth and fairness take a decided back seat to prosecutors zeal for winning - particularly against the marginal in our society.

33. National flood program makes it worst (and insurance companies benefit.)

34. Critical thinking is not part of our K-12 system in general

35. Paranoia and conspiracy madness (Sandy Hook isn't real, [edited to add QAnon] et. al. - though JFK was killed by our govt! Trust me on this.)

36. Fox news, Breitbart, Drudge and talk radio like Limbaugh.

37. Nuclear capability in crazy hands - and hey, just nuclear capability.

38. Testosterone (it's always been both a blessing and a curse; I think the curse portion is winning now)

39. Racism, sexism, xenophobia and homo and trans phobia

40. Religious extremists of the Muslim, Christian, Buddhist, Jewish, et. al. variety

41. Extremists of the right and left who are not motivated by religion, but by some belief that they have "the truth".

42. The coming pandemic [edited to say: one came; more are on the way]

43. Public transportation infrastructure

44. Our horrible tort system

45 The fact that we have not come to terms with, apologized for or made amends for our history (slavery, genocide and land theft of Indians, imperialism, overturning regimes we don't like, supporting horrible regimes, theft of land from Mexico, Hawaii, and others, et. al.)

46. The decrease of social mobility

47. The sixth extinction is nigh

48. Crazy, crazy amount of spending on defense

49. Bureaucracy

50. Scientific ignorance

51. Factory farming, processed food and the whole industrial food complex

52. Anti-vaxers

53. Cops getting away with murder

54. The fact that human beings often seem to love or need revenge

55. The split of the Democratic party into two warring factions, which is why we have Trump today (and it is going to get worse before it can possibly get better - remember the 60s and 70s people???) To put it another way: The left is cannibalistic. They eat their own. The right somehow manages to come together while the left doesn't.

56. Reality shows

57. The rise of China (authoritarianism seemingly working as well as - perhaps better than - democratic capitalism)

58. The Putin rise in Russia (horrible provocateurs even if their country is screwed)

59. Mental health/ mental resilience getting worse - and few resources to help

60. The feeling of entitlement on the left and the right

61 Housing prices in desirable weather/ cultural areas going crazy. Homelessness exploding. Not enough housing in many markets in the West and South.

62 The inability of so many to delay gratification

63 Internet and gamer culture (it's horribly sexist even though many, many folks who are into the internet and gaming are just fine, of course)

64. The decline of unions

65. The already existing, but soon exploding, pension crisis

66. The death of employer-sponsored pensions and health care without good alternatives

67. No way to die easily when your time is done (adding to our huge debt and a lot of unnecessary suffering)

68. Income inequality and, yet, the richest 20% want even more even though they already have 76% of American's wealth. [edited to say 86% in 2022]

69. Lobbyists

70. Lack of campaign finance reform - rich people buy what they want.

71. Blue state white folks are generally fat and happy so they aren't going to be rising up

72. Red state folks don't seem to give a damn about having competent leaders

73. A nation of immigrants is increasingly anti-immigrant (though other times have been like this.)

74. The insect apocalypse.

75. Violence, sexual assault and disrespect against women

76. Addiction to various things

77. The left not supporting free speech

78. Massive overuse of plastic

79. Venezuela is one precautionary tale

80. Brexit is another precautionary tale

81. People hating and fearing refugees - and there are going to be millions of them

82. The fact that leftists can't tell rightist apart (and think they are all Nazis or white supremacists)

83. The fact that rightist can't tell leftists apart (and think they are all Venezuela-style socialists or communists)

84. The left equating physical violence with language violence – giving intellectual justification for physical violence against verbal violence

85. The fact that the right has all the guns and physical power: the left will be crushed in a civil war

86. The lust for power and money

87. The fact that neither the left nor the right can take a joke

88. Over-regulation

89. Anti-science and anti-intellectual movements

90. The rise of Dominion Christians like Pence and Moore

91. The fact that, increasingly, people stick to their own kind, read their own kind, live with their own kind, marry their own kind, get entertained by their own kind, etc.

92. Coral bleaching, mercury in fish, a huge amount of plastic in the ocean, overfishing, etc.

93. The health care mess in America

94 The infrastructure mess in America

95 Drought in the West, the draining of aquifers many places, dried wells and land subsistence.

96. Medicare/social security crisis - aging boomers

97. Identity politics on the left, which serves to divide us - plus all the over-sensitive stuff like cultural appropriation, trigger warnings, safe space - the left as victims.

98. Republicans cutting taxes - particularly on those who can easily pay way more taxes so all the messes can't be fixed

99. The overdose crisis

100. Nuclear waste - fear Hanford.

101. Too many people with too little resources. (I actually think there will be many less people in a few generations so the population will top off and and, through water scarcity, pandemic disease, famine, refugee death, flooding, heat waves, etc, it will actually start decreasing but still! However, Africa's population is booming. Nigeria is projected to overtake China in population by 2100, with a size 10x smaller. )

102. Soil erosion.

103. Resistance to chemicals - whether antibiotics or pesticides - in which the problems explode exponentially as new ones can't be made fast enough - or are too toxic - to help.

104. Multiple issues with the press!

• "We" is defined here to mean those who feel we are the sons and daughters of the enlightenment. While I think we are doomed, I do think America and Americans have many fine qualities. This is just not that list. Feel free to make that list!!

I love Sarah Palin

Seriously. No snark. I mean it. I’m not kidding. Now, I have written about her before. In fact, for easy reference, I have put all my blogs about or related to her in a Palin folder. I love her because she surprises me all the time! What politician in her right mind would have done what she did??! The answer is: no politician would have done it. Therefore, she either isn’t a politician, isn’t in her right mind or both.

She may – just may – have a screw loose. Todd Purdum wrote in his recent Vanity Fair profile of Palin:

Several told me, independently of one another, that they had consulted the definition of “narcissistic personality disorder” [NPD] in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders—“a pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy”—and thought it fit her perfectly.

Now, due to my future “blagner” (a blog about Richard Wagner), I happen to always keep a copy of the DSM-R around with a dog-ear on NPD and, indeed, she seems to meet all 9 criteria. (You only have to meet 5 to qualify for the diagnosis.) So, let’s just say that this is the screw she might have a tiny bit loose. That said, many, many very successful politicians do meet the NPD criteria. For instance, Bill Clinton easily does too. And, he certainly is a politician.

So, really, I have come to the conclusion that she isn’t a politician. Or, at least, a recognizable version of a politician. I should have seen this coming because of the turkey thing! What politician in her right mind would have had a turkey slaughtered in the background after “pardoning” a turkey? The answer is: no politician would have done it. I actually really liked that she did it – because, come on, I eat turkey. Those turkeys were clearly raised humanely, killed humanely and I appreciated seeing it. But, it was the most bizarre thing I had ever seen a "politician" do.

In her little farewell speech (required viewing), she said this isn't "politics as usual" several times. I agree. It is not at all. So, I recognize, acknowledge and celebrate her for this true insight. Anyway, now that she has recognized that she isn’t a politician, she can now move on to what God (and America!) really had planned for her all along: To get really, really wealthy! You go, girl, and get that loot. Ah, God Bless America.

By the way, I wanted to give a plug to my friend Brian’s “news cycle management” insight. He noticed that Palin made her announcement after Jon Stewart left for a two-week vacation. And, that Larry Craig did the same thing. And, that Bush did the same thing when he commuted Liddy’s sentence. Pretty sly, aye?

The "Obama Chill"

I was just watching the news and Obama came down some red carpet and I got a chill as he did it. Hey, Obama is the President! I've had this chill many times. Wow, it feels great! Others have told me that they feel the same. Thus, if the phrase isn't coined, I wanted credit. Therefore, let us go forth and feel the great "Obama chill". (Even when he screws up...)

Our President

I put this picture on my blog as a service to my readership so you don't have to search the internet. Aren't I considerate? Also, bonus boogie-boarding (update: oops, I meant body-surfing...) from last August.

The rain that changed history?

The Hilo rain scared off Sarah Palin. As documented in the book Sarah, she – along with three of her friends – thought it would be a fabulous thing to go to college in Hawaii. They clearly did very little research about Hilo, expecting both warmth and sunshine. According to one member of the quartet, Tilly Ketchum, it rained for three weeks straight when they arrived (towards the end of August of 1982). "Once we got there, we hated it," she recalled. Sarah said of the experience: “"Rain was coming sideways, and I wondered what the heck I was doing out there.”

To get away from the rain, Palin and her friends quickly transferred to Hawaii Pacific University on Oahu. While it rained less there, they happened to go to college in the second rainiest year since records had been kept. (It is now the third rainiest year as 1994 took the lead.) So, ultimately, she decided she preferred cold to rain.

But, could it have been different if she happened to go a different year?

Here is a chart showing the amount of rain greeting our ignorant Sarah and her buddies. (School started on August 23rd. Therefore, I checked the records beginning on August 22 at this wonderful site. Click on the chart if the writing is too small for you to read. Remember, dear foreign readers, that 1 inch=2.5 cm)The first 10 days, the hapless foursome were pelted with 15" of rain. By contrast, we have been in Hilo for three months and have only received 14.74" of rain the entire time! What a contrast.

Hilo is exactly the “small town with good American values” kind of place Palin claims to treasure. (And, having spent time in both Wasilla and here - trust me, Hilo beats Wasilla for charm.) If she had the spectacularly good weather we have had, instead of the rotten weather she endured, don't you think that history might have been different?

Parrot not Quail

My friend Lynn sent this link for this important political effort. I, too, support the cause! What could be more important in these troubled times?

Ken's thoughts on Proposition 8 and me

I asked Ken, a Christian who believes in the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman only, to guest blog when I wrote the piece Thoughts on Proposition 8. He has done so and I publish it below. But, since he begins the piece telling you all that I was the only person in his life he ever truly hated, I felt a little personal context was warranted.

I came to an appreciation of conciliation as the best way to live life after years of practice being a jerk. My base personality is competitive, opinionated, stubborn, argumentative and quick to anger. Also, as I have pointed out in other blogs, I appreciate schadenfreude. Not a recipe for a nice person, believe me. Of course, I do have many traits that temper those qualities. But, it was those qualities that led my brother, Ken, to hate me as we were growing up and for some time thereafter.

However, because I came to realize that my base traits sucked, I set myself on a course to seek conciliation whenever I could. I was wildly inconsistent in this endeavor. Whenever I am stressed, those negative traits re-emerge. One of the reasons I wanted to retire early is to remove that stress and, hence, remove the context in which my bad side emerged. In my life away from work people often actually find me to be fun-loving, generous, forgiving, kind, humorous, intelligent and down-right sweet. (C'est vrai! It's true!)

Anyway, in my relationship with Ken, I have consciously tried to be conciliatory for most of my adult life. Because we differed, politically and personally, on virtually everything, the possibility of conflict was ever-present. However, since Ken is, by inclination, conflict-adverse, I would have been the one stoking the fire. But, I want to live in a world where - as my Mom always says - we all just get along. So, at every turn, I took the high road.

Ken and I might never agree on much politically, but I do think we now both agree on the value of conciliation. It certainly worked for us.

Hi. This is Ken, Robin’s conservative evangelical brother, taking her up on the offer to join her blog for a few comments regarding Prop 8. First, some preliminaries…

On occasion, I have said that the one person I have ever truly hated in my life is my sister. As youngsters, she tormented me—and she really seemed to enjoy it! I was quiet, shy, and “good.” She was…well, different than me. In my late teens, I accepted the truth-claims of the Bible and became a Christian; Robin followed “a different drummer.” By the time we both left the nest, our relationship was poor at best.

I don’t know how I found out, or when, but I learned a few years later that my sister was gay, and I learned that I was the last in the family to be told. It had been, as I recall, two years since my parents and brothers were informed. Robin had been afraid to tell me because I was a Christian, and she wasn’t sure how I would respond. I felt at the time (and even more strongly now) that Robin’s fear of my condemnation meant I was doing something wrong as a Christian.

Much has changed since then. Slowly but surely I have come to love my sister—and to respect her.

We’re still very different, of course, and we disagree on quite a lot. For reasons I won’t go into, I didn’t vote this year (for the first time in my voting life), but if I had I would have voted yes on Prop 8 (to counter Robin’s no vote). As Robin has already suggested, that’s not out of hatred or a desire to deny people their civil rights—those rights are already in place. Instead, it is a reflection of my belief that the institution of marriage is God’s creation that can’t be redefined by man.

If we delved into that in more detail, there would certainly be many points of disagreement. And yet I also have come to learn that life is far more complicated than we often acknowledge, and it’s far too easy to look at someone else’s situation or perspective from our own limited perspective.

Are you familiar with the Parable of the Prodigal Son in the Bible (Luke 15)? The parable is often recounted in moralistic tones, with the point having something to do with avoiding the prodigal son’s wanton and rebellious existence. There is another brother, though, and the story is actually directed to people like him. He is angry, self-righteous, and condemning. The truth of the matter is that both sons are lost. Ultimately, the story is that of a Gracious Father, who unexpectedly loves and accepts both of his sons, and serves as an example for those who follow Him.

I may not agree with you, but I am in no position to condemn you. So let’s talk. I will probably never sway you from your opinion, nor is it likely that you will you sway me from mine. But perhaps we can at least learn to respect one another. And let me tell you, that makes a world of difference.

I miss Santa Cruz!!

Hey you wonderful Santa Cruz folks - I wish I could have been there to join this celebration for Obama!

But, we did have a good time - if a bit less raucous. But here are a few pictures from our small election watching party in Hilo.

Coloring in the states as we win them...

Popping the cork when it was called for Obama

Enjoying the moment with our bubbly.

Thoughts on Proposition 8

In 1995, in large part for political reasons, Leslie and I got married. We called it a marriage then and now. But, what we were trying to do was push for equal rights for gay couples. We didn’t really care what word was used – domestic partner, civil union and marriage all worked for us. In California, thanks to the Democratic legislature and Gray Davis, we now have those rights. (I also credit Schwarzenegger for helping to tamp down right-wing attempts to overturn the law.)

So, the fact is that I actually felt ambivalent about Proposition 8.

On the one hand, of course I wanted it to go down in defeat to create true legal and symbolic equality between gay and straight couples. But, I also knew we were just having a fight about one word. Marriage. We weren’t fighting about rights – gay couples already have all the substantive rights of marriage in California and those were not being challenged.

Since I knew that conservatives had given up the fight in California to repeal those rights, I actually felt rather kindly to the right and preferred that we extend an olive branch. I was willing to wait a generation without the symbolism, just as long as we have the rights. But, given the Supreme Courts ruling and Proposition 8, this was no longer an option. So I, of course, voted No on 8. (I wasn’t that ambivalent!)

Their “side” wanted that symbolic victory to hold on to what they deeply feel to be right. It doesn’t mean most of them hate us. We need to start engaging in conversation with conservative people of faith not as enemies but as potential friends, not as caricatures but as caring human beings. Sure, there are many that do feel very negative, even hate, towards gay people. But, I do not believe they are a majority. In this spirit, I have asked my brother, Ken, an evangelic Christian to guest blog on this issue. He – like many conservative people of faith – are actually very ambivalent on the issue. I don’t know if he will have the time or inclination to describe his thoughts, but I hope he does. This is the sort of dialogue we need to have. (Update: He does so here.)

Obama likes to quote Martin Luther King: The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice. And, so it has been with gay rights. And, it came so much faster than I would have ever believed. In time, I believe that gays will obtain full legal and symbolic rights with the passing of the generations. We need to keep working for this. But, I strongly believe we need to stop demonizing all conservatives. As Obama always says, let’s try to disagree without being disagreeable. Let’s assume the best about our opposition whenever possible and not the worst. I believe, as Obama does, that this is the best path to unity in our country.

Predictions - the day after

It turns out that he was completely right. Yes, we can!! How cool is that?? So, just a few predictions.

1. Obama sent an email to supporters before he went out for his speech last night. He thanked us and then he put us on notice that we have work to do and he plans to lead. : We have a lot of work to do to get our country back on track, and I'll be in touch soon about what comes next. Yes, he will be in touch! The great, mostly unwritten story of this election is the movement that brought him to power. As I have said in this blog before, all his work to build the organization was not simply to get elected President. It was to build a movement that would create change in America. He believes that change comes from the bottom, from the people. But, of course, a leader is also necessary to help channel that energy effectively. He has shown that he is that leader. And, he showed that it is possible to organize the USA as one community. So my prediction: In four years, people will fully appreciate that this is a movement with on-going political force and not just an election that has been won.

2. Bush will get the prize he has long sought. He will become Baseball Commissioner.

3. The Republicans will get far worse before they get better. Whoever wins the nomination in 2012 will continue to run too far to the right. Romney will be back and he will have the same problem as before. Palin will be back but so will Huckabee. And, I predict Jindal will be pushed forward as the great-not-white hope of the Republicans and will throw his hat into the ring. If you don't know who he is - it is time to read about him. (Summary: parents are Hindus from India; he is smart, young, Catholic, solid conservative and Louisiana governor.) Anyway, it should be very entertaining.

4. Ellen will cry on the first show taped after the election.

Prediction

It is 12:45 am in Hawaii - the first polls close in fifteen minutes. Time to put in my prediction. Here is what I think is the most likely scenario. I think Obama will win by 6% of the vote. (Barr and Nader will both pull in about 1% each.) I hope I am wrong. I hope Obama does even better.... Double digit popular vote. Wins Indiana (it is very close). Wins Montana (if Ron Paul gets a good percentage - very possible). Wins Georgia. Wins Arizona (not likely, but I can dream). If all those went Obama's way, he gets 406 electoral votes. Now, that would make me really happy.



But, I will settle for 270 electoral votes and 50.0001% popular vote.

The coming schadenfreude

No matter what the outcome of the election, one side or the other is going to bathe in an over-flowing river of schadenfreude. For those not familiar with the German word, it means the enjoyment of other’s misfortunes. And, I admit, I have set aside all of Wednesday to just read about the Republican torment. I expect to fully and deeply enjoy the Republican misery.

I feel somewhat guilty for this impending pleasure but I believe we Democrats deserve our moment of gleeful revenge. That said, I think it is very important to put that impulse aside after, say, a week or two. Then, it is time to start working with those Republicans, Greens, Independents and Libertarians who are willing to work with us. I signed on to Obama’s campaign because I believe he sincerely wants to change the nature of political discourse in Washington. I will join him. Just give me that one glorious, gloating week!

But, if the shoe ends up on the other foot and it is people like myself who end up the butt of the joke, so be it. Democrats have been there before. We know what to do.

Either way, drinks will be in order!

Ten annoying men

There are male commentators, writers, journalists, etc. that I do like. Perhaps that list tomorrow. But, far too many are completely annoying. So, here is my top ten list of commentators and/or writers who are like fingernails on the chalkboard to me. I am not including folks like Limbaugh, Glen Beck, O’Reilly, etc because they go well beyond annoyance into complete intellectual bankruptcy. And, yes, there were some women who annoyed me, too, but none would crack this top ten. I am not going to give much individual commentary of why I found them so annoying but the generic reasons were:

1. They were wildly inconsistent.
2. They were intellectually dishonest.
3. They twisted reality to suit their purposes (which is, I suppose, a combination of the first two).
4. They were arrogant.
5. They were often wrong and would rarely, or ever, admit it.

Bill Kristol
David Brooks
Paul Krugman (his Nobel price notwithstanding)
Bill Morris
Paul Begala
Howard Wolfson
Ron Fournier (AP writer – he is supposed to be a newsman, but his articles read like an opinion column.)
Tim Russert (Look, I know that he is dead now and, perhaps, it is bad to speak ill of the dead but he annoyed me more than anyone.)
George Stephanopoulous
Karl Rove (I include him because, unlike Limbaugh, et al., he tries to pretend to be above the fray but, obviously, he is not.)

Top ten women of the election season

I love making lists. So, here is my top ten list of the woman who made this election season (two years!) more interesting, more compelling and better than ever before. This list is, more or less, in order of how happy the woman (and, in one case, women) made me.

1. Rachael Maddow. I am not a person who listens to radio. She has a show on Air America and was the break-out hit of that radio network. But, I first saw her in 2007 as a commentator on MSNBC during election nights. She was whip-smart and intellectually honest and funny. And really cute. MSNBC gave her a show that began in September. If you haven't watched her, check here.

2. Tina Fey. I don't think I need to say anything more. But here is my earlier tribute to her.

3. Gail Collins. New York Times columnist. (Thanks to Brian for continually asking me, "Have you read Gail Collins?") She is always sharp, funny but not (very) mean. (Unlike Dowd, who sometimes makes me laugh but almost always makes me cringe at the same time.) Check Gail out here.

4. Campbell Brown. For acting like a real journalist and insisting that "being objective" does not mean giving both sides of a story if one side is a complete fabrication. I first noticed her when she had this interview with Tucker Bounds, a spokesman for McCain. He wouldn't answer a question about Palin's qualifications and she didn't let him get away with it. But, then, she was given a show called No Bias, No Bull in which she does commentaries. They have been fantastic. She took on Arab-bashing in my favorite one. Watch here. By the way, her husband is a Republican consultant.

5. Donna Brazile. Unlike most Republican or Democratic "spinners" - she actually maintained intellectual honesty throughout the full campaign. While she never declared who she supported, I think it was clear that she had originally planned to support Clinton and after South Carolina primary changed to Obama. But, yet, she never made idiotic statements that didn't conform to the truth like, say, Paul Begala often did. If you don't know who she is, watch this.

6. Katie Couric. She really came through in her interview with Palin. Follow-up questions! What a novel idea.

7. The View. (Ok, it is four women but....) At a time where the press really wasn't going after McCain at all, they did. Watch here.

8. Kathleen Parker. A columnist for the conservative National Review. She wrote a column saying that Palin wasn't qualified and should leave the ticket voluntarily for the good of the Republican party. She had hell to pay for that column from the right - but she wrote several follow-up columns and didn't back down. Read here.

9. Hillary Clinton. This is a complicated one and deserves way more space. For now, I will just say that I do have a deep admiration for her and her accomplishments. And, because she made it a contest until the bitter end, Obama has a stronger campaign network. This is what Clinton claimed would happen and she has been proven correct. And, while Bill has been lukewarm in his support for Obama, Hillary has been great.

10. Sarah Palin. I have conflicted feelings about her, as well. If she didn't lie so much, I would actually really like her. But, I really have a problem with someone who can lie about so much so often. If you want to read all her lies, go to Andrew Sullivan's blog. But, she has sure made it one wild ride.

Staying calm, cool and collected

Traumatized Democrats tend to worry a lot during Presidential elections, with every right. Because I have been actively involved in this election since March of 2007, I have had a lot of doubt, worry and sleep-deprived nights. But, there have been some folks that have really helped me to stay on an even-keel and I wanted to acknowledge them.

Leslie, of course. She's is just a wonderful partner and I am quite lucky to be involved with someone so much more sane than I!

In Santa Cruz, there are two other people who helped me keep the faith even in those days and weeks that looked bad for Obama: Brian and Angela. They always told me - even when I had deep doubts - that Obama was going to win. Their optimism really helped me. So, thank you two! (Is the fact that they were both recently Republicans mean that they can access optimism more easily?)

And in internet land, Nate Silver's fabulous 538 has helped me to sleep at night. He is a wonk's wonk. If you want to know what is really happening in poll-land, he is your man. While he is an Obama fan, he tries his best to be scrupulously fair. For example, yesterday there was a Fox poll that showed Obama's national lead at just 3%. Many commentators thought that Fox was "cooking the books". Silver heartily defended the poll in his "Today's Polls" from yesterday (Oct 30).

While Nate tells us truthfully that all the news isn't perfect for Obama, most of the news is horrible for McCain. Nate makes it clear that a come-from-behind win for McCain is getting farther and farther from reality. And, thus, I feel calm, cool and collected - just like our man, Obama. (How old are you if you know that I just channeled Katie Winter's ad for Secret deodorant?)

And, let's keeping working! Keep calling!

Happy halloween. Our pumpkins

I reveal to you my choice for President 2016

So, everytime I see Palin, I think about All About Eve. Apparently, this is not a unique thought as I googled "All About Eve and Sarah Palin" and found that lots of bloggers have mentioned the similarity. For those not familiar with the plot, essentially Eve is an aspiring actress who quickly claws her way to the top by befriending, then discarding, people who help her along the way. This has been Palin's repeated pattern as well. Believe me, she is never going away!

To be more generous to Palin, her rise to the top has a lot of Legally Blond in it, too. (This thought is also not unique. Yes, google told me so.) The Elle Woods character, played wonderfully by Reese Witherspoon, is out of her league at Harvard, but because of supreme self-confidence and native smarts, she triumphs. There are a lot of people who think Palin is dumb. I am not one of them. She is clearly bright, just not well-educated or informed on most national or international topics (yet). But, she will be cramming and will certainly be ready for her close-up in 2012.

Speaking of movies, earlier in the election cycle, I really thought that Clinton and Tracy Flick, the lead character in the movie Election, (also played by Reese Witherspoon) had a lot in common. So did Slate magazine, who created this video to show the parallels between the two frustrated candidates.

Which brings me to my pick for the next Governor of California (and future President of the United States): Reese Witherspoon. Think about it. A combination of Tracy Flick/Elle Woods (with a little June Carter Cash thrown in to get those pesky "real American" votes) would be unstoppable. California likes to vote for movie stars with limited qualifications. Before becoming Governor, Reagan's experience consisted of being the President of the Screen Actor's Guild; Schwarzenegger's experience consisted of being chairman of the President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports.

So, what has Reese done? She is actively involved in children's and women's advocacy organizations. She serves on the board of the Children's Defense Fund (CDF), and was named Global Ambassador of Avon Products in 2007, serving as honorary chairman of the charitable Avon Foundation. Certainly that is enough for California.

Reese owns a film company called Type A Productions. I think this tells you that she is driven. She can clearly act, having won an Oscar for her portrayal as June Carter Cash. She is good-looking, which is always a plus. Her favorable ratings would be sky high, as she is well-loved by movie goers. She is smart (she was attending Stanford when her career took off and is "on leave"). She is an active Democrat - working for Obama this year.

Looking down the road, I am seeing a Palin-Witherspoon match in, say, 2016. While she lives in California now, her roots are Southern. She was born in New Orleans and was raised in Tennessee. Witherspoon already has way more international experience than Palin. She lived in Germany when she was young as her Dad was in the military. She has actually traveled around the world advocating for woman (the Avon global ambassador thing.) Here is one example. She's bona fide!

I look foward to the Palin/Witherspoon debate. And, yes, I think it is safe to say that this is a unique thought. But, I think it is a damn fine idea. Let's get the ball rolling: Witherspoon for Governor 2010! And President in 2016!

Tucker Carlson is correct

Look, I am making phone calls for Obama. Two hours a day. I am trying very, very hard not to not be over-confident or complacent. But, I think the very conservative Tucker Carlson has it right. Please read this. We are going to win. McCain has no realistic chance for victory. At dead minimum, I believe Obama will get 286 electoral college votes. I believe this will be the outcome if McCain surges in the next two weeks - if things go very wrong for Obama. Here is that map:


But, I don't think things will go very wrong for Obama. I think things will continue to go wrong for McCain. So, I actually think the map below is just as likely. I would even say that this is the most likely scenario except that I am one of those Democrats that Carlson is talking about. However, I can see that he is right. One way or another, we are going to win.

However, I think it would really help Obama to govern effectively if he wins by a big margin. So, please help out in the next two weeks. Here is the Obama Santa Cruz calendar. For those not in Santa Cruz, it is easy to make calls from your home.

We are going to win! Really! Let's make it a landslide!

Obama optimism

While trying to guard against complacency, I must say that I am as certain as I can be three weeks out that we are going to win. Yes, yes, things can change. The famous "October surprise". But, I mentioned my confidence to a friend in an email who responded: "I'm not nearly as optimistic about Obama as you are, but that's because I'm a neurotic Jew who always sees the glass half empty." I responded to him with a version of the following.

The reason I think he is going to win is because of the state polls, which are all that matter. Where are Palin and McCain today literally? In Pennsylvania. And what do the state polls show there? Obama is ahead by double digits in all the polls (13.4). It is very, very difficult to make up double digit numbers in three weeks. I just don't believe they are going to flip Pennsylvania or any other state that went for Kerry. It isn't going to happen. Anyone want to bet against me?

As well, right now, Obama is ahead in virtually all the so-called battleground states. He is comfortably ahead in many states Bush won in 04: Iowa (11.3), New Mexico (7.3), Colorado (5.2), Florida (5) and Virginia (6.5). Beyond that, he is also a little ahead in Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. This list goes on and on and nothing is going McCain's way.

Basically, to have a prayer, McCain needs to spend all his time:

• shoring up the Bush states that he thought were cakewalks but are now slipping into Obama's column (West Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina)
• holding the line on Indiana where he leads narrowly
• attempt to get Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Florida to lean back red. (His economic proposal today is all about trying to get Florida back....)

Here is what I think is the best case scenario for a McCain road to victory: In it, he somehow manages to reverse all the following states that he is currently trailing in by less than 7 points: Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, Virgina and North Carolina. Plus, hold all the other states that are close: West Virginia, Indiana and Georgia. That would give him 274. Doable? Yes. Likely to hold every single one of those states? No.

This is what I think is a far, far more likely scenario:


And that scenario is that Obama holds all the states where he is leading today except Missouri and North Carolina. I actually think he could easily win both of those states - I was just trying to show you how hard the map is for McCain.

And, here is the best case scenario for an Obama win (which I think is actually far more likely than the best case McCain scenario):


If McCain has a prayer it is this: "Please lord, have Osama attack now! Or, at least, put out a tape in support of Obama. And please, please make this the biggest Bradley effect ever! Because, otherwise, I am just so over."

And speaking of The Bradley effect, I don't buy that the Bradley effect is going to be a big factor and if it is, it is going to be offset by these factors:

1. The amazing Obama ground game. See my post for more if you are interested: Obama's incredible organization. The Republicans - like Hillary Clinton before them - aren't even in the same ballpark this time.

2. The under-polled vote due to cellphones.

3. The polls underrepresenting "likely voters" - particularly blacks and youth.

By the way, the averages I used were from Real Clear Politics which has a right-lean to it. (It includes bad right-wing polling and excludes decent left-wing polling.) So, they are conservative numbers.

Am I saying, let's not do anything now? NO, of course not! But, am I saying that I think that the polls are real. YES! And, I don't see McCain making up that kind of ground for a number of reasons such as:

• He is wrong on the issues. Only 91% of Americans think we are on the wrong track. McCain was on that train.
  
• He is acting like an erratic idiot. Everyday a new drama. Mean in the first debate, wandering in the second debate. Even if he is pitch perfect in the third, the die is already cast.
  
• Sarah Palin is not helping. She did a lot herself to ratchet up those negatives, but I think Tina Fey really helped put the nail in her coffin. My take: The Tina Fey bounce
• The Republican establishment is already bailing out on him.
  
• He is campaigning in the wrong states.
  
• He doesn't have the money to compete (and that well is getting drier by the day).
• The RNC - who does have money - doesn't have the same message. Plus, they are about to send their money to the Senate elections because no one thinks he can come back.
  
• He is running one of the worst campaigns ever!
  
• Obama is running a very smart campaign.

We are going to win. But keep making calls! Keep working! Vote early (you might die in the meantime!). The larger the win, the easier for him to govern.

Obama's incredible organization

When the history of this campaign is written, the amazing organization that Obama has built is going to be at the very center of the story. And, if he can harness that organization during his presidency, it will change America forever and for the better. Obama has made it clear, time and again, that this was ultimately his plan. His aim in building this organization was not just to get elected, but--more importantly--to help him to govern, by calling upon this grass-roots army recruited and trained by his campaign. The Obama campaign website has, from its inception, run this quote as the heading: "I'm asking you to believe. Not just in my ability to bring about real change in Washington.... I’m asking you to believe in yours." He has made a beliver out of me.

Obama made the decision to build his campaign based on the model he learned as a community organizer. That key decision--and relentless follow-through--has led to the singular best Democratic ground campaign in modern history. I saw first hand the growing pains of his approach with my work with Obama Santa Cruz during 2007, but I am now awed by the incredible success of his method.

Please read this (rather long) article by blogger Zack Exley that describes the campaign's team-building work. Teams have been created in the so-called battleground states to register voters, identify supporters and get out the vote, and also in the other states to support the effort where it is needed. In addition, new teams are still being formed, just weeks before the election. (Zack's article fully explains that how this all works.)

In safe states like California, and in we-are-going-to-lose-it states like Utah, all the volunteer energy is now going to the so-called battleground states. For instance, all travel and phone banks from Obama Santa Cruz are directed to a specific area in Nevada (the Reno area). Every weekend, from tens to hundreds of Santa Cruz residents drive to Reno to canvass. Every week, Santa Cruz hosts dozens of phone banks, all calling into the same area. The calls are not random, but use sophisticated models of who to call and whether the call is for “persuasion” or just “ID.” The same thing is happening all over California and all over the nation. Folks from Illinois flood Ohio; folks from Utah stream over to Colorado. Nothing like this has ever happened before.

Yes, people have traveled to battleground states before. For the Kerry campaign, for instance, I worked in both Ohio and Florida. But it was not at all like this effort--neither in organization, size, scope, sophistication nor, most importantly, inspiration. All these grass-roots teams will still exist after November 4th and, believe me, they are still going to be working for Obama and the nation.

From the inside, the Obama campaign is truly awe-inspiring. Obama and his campaign have taken a gaggle of gloomy and depressed cynics and turned us into a happy, peppy band full of hope and determination! With our nation in this miserable mess, I am so happy that we have an army of inspired optimists--including me--to help Obama change the nation for the better.

As the nation will see on November 4th and beyond, Palin’s obnoxious dismissal of Obama’s community organizing background was seriously, and ironically, erroneous.

Debate take

McCain “lost” because he wouldn’t look at Obama ever! Even when shaking hands. No one will remember what either man said. Everyone will remember how McCain acted. It was totally classless. Totally non-Presidential. That was his “gaffe” last night. What a strange, strange man. See some examples in the following youtube video:

http://fr.youtube.com/watch?v=9EsYbhpmjLA