Staying calm, cool and collected

Traumatized Democrats tend to worry a lot during Presidential elections, with every right. Because I have been actively involved in this election since March of 2007, I have had a lot of doubt, worry and sleep-deprived nights. But, there have been some folks that have really helped me to stay on an even-keel and I wanted to acknowledge them.

Leslie, of course. She's is just a wonderful partner and I am quite lucky to be involved with someone so much more sane than I!

In Santa Cruz, there are two other people who helped me keep the faith even in those days and weeks that looked bad for Obama: Brian and Angela. They always told me - even when I had deep doubts - that Obama was going to win. Their optimism really helped me. So, thank you two! (Is the fact that they were both recently Republicans mean that they can access optimism more easily?)

And in internet land, Nate Silver's fabulous 538 has helped me to sleep at night. He is a wonk's wonk. If you want to know what is really happening in poll-land, he is your man. While he is an Obama fan, he tries his best to be scrupulously fair. For example, yesterday there was a Fox poll that showed Obama's national lead at just 3%. Many commentators thought that Fox was "cooking the books". Silver heartily defended the poll in his "Today's Polls" from yesterday (Oct 30).

While Nate tells us truthfully that all the news isn't perfect for Obama, most of the news is horrible for McCain. Nate makes it clear that a come-from-behind win for McCain is getting farther and farther from reality. And, thus, I feel calm, cool and collected - just like our man, Obama. (How old are you if you know that I just channeled Katie Winter's ad for Secret deodorant?)

And, let's keeping working! Keep calling!

Happy halloween. Our pumpkins

I reveal to you my choice for President 2016

So, everytime I see Palin, I think about All About Eve. Apparently, this is not a unique thought as I googled "All About Eve and Sarah Palin" and found that lots of bloggers have mentioned the similarity. For those not familiar with the plot, essentially Eve is an aspiring actress who quickly claws her way to the top by befriending, then discarding, people who help her along the way. This has been Palin's repeated pattern as well. Believe me, she is never going away!

To be more generous to Palin, her rise to the top has a lot of Legally Blond in it, too. (This thought is also not unique. Yes, google told me so.) The Elle Woods character, played wonderfully by Reese Witherspoon, is out of her league at Harvard, but because of supreme self-confidence and native smarts, she triumphs. There are a lot of people who think Palin is dumb. I am not one of them. She is clearly bright, just not well-educated or informed on most national or international topics (yet). But, she will be cramming and will certainly be ready for her close-up in 2012.

Speaking of movies, earlier in the election cycle, I really thought that Clinton and Tracy Flick, the lead character in the movie Election, (also played by Reese Witherspoon) had a lot in common. So did Slate magazine, who created this video to show the parallels between the two frustrated candidates.

Which brings me to my pick for the next Governor of California (and future President of the United States): Reese Witherspoon. Think about it. A combination of Tracy Flick/Elle Woods (with a little June Carter Cash thrown in to get those pesky "real American" votes) would be unstoppable. California likes to vote for movie stars with limited qualifications. Before becoming Governor, Reagan's experience consisted of being the President of the Screen Actor's Guild; Schwarzenegger's experience consisted of being chairman of the President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports.

So, what has Reese done? She is actively involved in children's and women's advocacy organizations. She serves on the board of the Children's Defense Fund (CDF), and was named Global Ambassador of Avon Products in 2007, serving as honorary chairman of the charitable Avon Foundation. Certainly that is enough for California.

Reese owns a film company called Type A Productions. I think this tells you that she is driven. She can clearly act, having won an Oscar for her portrayal as June Carter Cash. She is good-looking, which is always a plus. Her favorable ratings would be sky high, as she is well-loved by movie goers. She is smart (she was attending Stanford when her career took off and is "on leave"). She is an active Democrat - working for Obama this year.

Looking down the road, I am seeing a Palin-Witherspoon match in, say, 2016. While she lives in California now, her roots are Southern. She was born in New Orleans and was raised in Tennessee. Witherspoon already has way more international experience than Palin. She lived in Germany when she was young as her Dad was in the military. She has actually traveled around the world advocating for woman (the Avon global ambassador thing.) Here is one example. She's bona fide!

I look foward to the Palin/Witherspoon debate. And, yes, I think it is safe to say that this is a unique thought. But, I think it is a damn fine idea. Let's get the ball rolling: Witherspoon for Governor 2010! And President in 2016!

Tucker Carlson is correct

Look, I am making phone calls for Obama. Two hours a day. I am trying very, very hard not to not be over-confident or complacent. But, I think the very conservative Tucker Carlson has it right. Please read this. We are going to win. McCain has no realistic chance for victory. At dead minimum, I believe Obama will get 286 electoral college votes. I believe this will be the outcome if McCain surges in the next two weeks - if things go very wrong for Obama. Here is that map:


But, I don't think things will go very wrong for Obama. I think things will continue to go wrong for McCain. So, I actually think the map below is just as likely. I would even say that this is the most likely scenario except that I am one of those Democrats that Carlson is talking about. However, I can see that he is right. One way or another, we are going to win.

However, I think it would really help Obama to govern effectively if he wins by a big margin. So, please help out in the next two weeks. Here is the Obama Santa Cruz calendar. For those not in Santa Cruz, it is easy to make calls from your home.

We are going to win! Really! Let's make it a landslide!

Obama optimism

While trying to guard against complacency, I must say that I am as certain as I can be three weeks out that we are going to win. Yes, yes, things can change. The famous "October surprise". But, I mentioned my confidence to a friend in an email who responded: "I'm not nearly as optimistic about Obama as you are, but that's because I'm a neurotic Jew who always sees the glass half empty." I responded to him with a version of the following.

The reason I think he is going to win is because of the state polls, which are all that matter. Where are Palin and McCain today literally? In Pennsylvania. And what do the state polls show there? Obama is ahead by double digits in all the polls (13.4). It is very, very difficult to make up double digit numbers in three weeks. I just don't believe they are going to flip Pennsylvania or any other state that went for Kerry. It isn't going to happen. Anyone want to bet against me?

As well, right now, Obama is ahead in virtually all the so-called battleground states. He is comfortably ahead in many states Bush won in 04: Iowa (11.3), New Mexico (7.3), Colorado (5.2), Florida (5) and Virginia (6.5). Beyond that, he is also a little ahead in Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. This list goes on and on and nothing is going McCain's way.

Basically, to have a prayer, McCain needs to spend all his time:

• shoring up the Bush states that he thought were cakewalks but are now slipping into Obama's column (West Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina)
• holding the line on Indiana where he leads narrowly
• attempt to get Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Florida to lean back red. (His economic proposal today is all about trying to get Florida back....)

Here is what I think is the best case scenario for a McCain road to victory: In it, he somehow manages to reverse all the following states that he is currently trailing in by less than 7 points: Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, Virgina and North Carolina. Plus, hold all the other states that are close: West Virginia, Indiana and Georgia. That would give him 274. Doable? Yes. Likely to hold every single one of those states? No.

This is what I think is a far, far more likely scenario:


And that scenario is that Obama holds all the states where he is leading today except Missouri and North Carolina. I actually think he could easily win both of those states - I was just trying to show you how hard the map is for McCain.

And, here is the best case scenario for an Obama win (which I think is actually far more likely than the best case McCain scenario):


If McCain has a prayer it is this: "Please lord, have Osama attack now! Or, at least, put out a tape in support of Obama. And please, please make this the biggest Bradley effect ever! Because, otherwise, I am just so over."

And speaking of The Bradley effect, I don't buy that the Bradley effect is going to be a big factor and if it is, it is going to be offset by these factors:

1. The amazing Obama ground game. See my post for more if you are interested: Obama's incredible organization. The Republicans - like Hillary Clinton before them - aren't even in the same ballpark this time.

2. The under-polled vote due to cellphones.

3. The polls underrepresenting "likely voters" - particularly blacks and youth.

By the way, the averages I used were from Real Clear Politics which has a right-lean to it. (It includes bad right-wing polling and excludes decent left-wing polling.) So, they are conservative numbers.

Am I saying, let's not do anything now? NO, of course not! But, am I saying that I think that the polls are real. YES! And, I don't see McCain making up that kind of ground for a number of reasons such as:

• He is wrong on the issues. Only 91% of Americans think we are on the wrong track. McCain was on that train.
  
• He is acting like an erratic idiot. Everyday a new drama. Mean in the first debate, wandering in the second debate. Even if he is pitch perfect in the third, the die is already cast.
  
• Sarah Palin is not helping. She did a lot herself to ratchet up those negatives, but I think Tina Fey really helped put the nail in her coffin. My take: The Tina Fey bounce
• The Republican establishment is already bailing out on him.
  
• He is campaigning in the wrong states.
  
• He doesn't have the money to compete (and that well is getting drier by the day).
• The RNC - who does have money - doesn't have the same message. Plus, they are about to send their money to the Senate elections because no one thinks he can come back.
  
• He is running one of the worst campaigns ever!
  
• Obama is running a very smart campaign.

We are going to win. But keep making calls! Keep working! Vote early (you might die in the meantime!). The larger the win, the easier for him to govern.

Obama's incredible organization

When the history of this campaign is written, the amazing organization that Obama has built is going to be at the very center of the story. And, if he can harness that organization during his presidency, it will change America forever and for the better. Obama has made it clear, time and again, that this was ultimately his plan. His aim in building this organization was not just to get elected, but--more importantly--to help him to govern, by calling upon this grass-roots army recruited and trained by his campaign. The Obama campaign website has, from its inception, run this quote as the heading: "I'm asking you to believe. Not just in my ability to bring about real change in Washington.... I’m asking you to believe in yours." He has made a beliver out of me.

Obama made the decision to build his campaign based on the model he learned as a community organizer. That key decision--and relentless follow-through--has led to the singular best Democratic ground campaign in modern history. I saw first hand the growing pains of his approach with my work with Obama Santa Cruz during 2007, but I am now awed by the incredible success of his method.

Please read this (rather long) article by blogger Zack Exley that describes the campaign's team-building work. Teams have been created in the so-called battleground states to register voters, identify supporters and get out the vote, and also in the other states to support the effort where it is needed. In addition, new teams are still being formed, just weeks before the election. (Zack's article fully explains that how this all works.)

In safe states like California, and in we-are-going-to-lose-it states like Utah, all the volunteer energy is now going to the so-called battleground states. For instance, all travel and phone banks from Obama Santa Cruz are directed to a specific area in Nevada (the Reno area). Every weekend, from tens to hundreds of Santa Cruz residents drive to Reno to canvass. Every week, Santa Cruz hosts dozens of phone banks, all calling into the same area. The calls are not random, but use sophisticated models of who to call and whether the call is for “persuasion” or just “ID.” The same thing is happening all over California and all over the nation. Folks from Illinois flood Ohio; folks from Utah stream over to Colorado. Nothing like this has ever happened before.

Yes, people have traveled to battleground states before. For the Kerry campaign, for instance, I worked in both Ohio and Florida. But it was not at all like this effort--neither in organization, size, scope, sophistication nor, most importantly, inspiration. All these grass-roots teams will still exist after November 4th and, believe me, they are still going to be working for Obama and the nation.

From the inside, the Obama campaign is truly awe-inspiring. Obama and his campaign have taken a gaggle of gloomy and depressed cynics and turned us into a happy, peppy band full of hope and determination! With our nation in this miserable mess, I am so happy that we have an army of inspired optimists--including me--to help Obama change the nation for the better.

As the nation will see on November 4th and beyond, Palin’s obnoxious dismissal of Obama’s community organizing background was seriously, and ironically, erroneous.