I love Sarah Palin

Seriously. No snark. I mean it. I’m not kidding. Now, I have written about her before. In fact, for easy reference, I have put all my blogs about or related to her in a Palin folder. I love her because she surprises me all the time! What politician in her right mind would have done what she did??! The answer is: no politician would have done it. Therefore, she either isn’t a politician, isn’t in her right mind or both.

She may – just may – have a screw loose. Todd Purdum wrote in his recent Vanity Fair profile of Palin:

Several told me, independently of one another, that they had consulted the definition of “narcissistic personality disorder” [NPD] in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders—“a pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy”—and thought it fit her perfectly.

Now, due to my future “blagner” (a blog about Richard Wagner), I happen to always keep a copy of the DSM-R around with a dog-ear on NPD and, indeed, she seems to meet all 9 criteria. (You only have to meet 5 to qualify for the diagnosis.) So, let’s just say that this is the screw she might have a tiny bit loose. That said, many, many very successful politicians do meet the NPD criteria. For instance, Bill Clinton easily does too. And, he certainly is a politician.

So, really, I have come to the conclusion that she isn’t a politician. Or, at least, a recognizable version of a politician. I should have seen this coming because of the turkey thing! What politician in her right mind would have had a turkey slaughtered in the background after “pardoning” a turkey? The answer is: no politician would have done it. I actually really liked that she did it – because, come on, I eat turkey. Those turkeys were clearly raised humanely, killed humanely and I appreciated seeing it. But, it was the most bizarre thing I had ever seen a "politician" do.

In her little farewell speech (required viewing), she said this isn't "politics as usual" several times. I agree. It is not at all. So, I recognize, acknowledge and celebrate her for this true insight. Anyway, now that she has recognized that she isn’t a politician, she can now move on to what God (and America!) really had planned for her all along: To get really, really wealthy! You go, girl, and get that loot. Ah, God Bless America.

By the way, I wanted to give a plug to my friend Brian’s “news cycle management” insight. He noticed that Palin made her announcement after Jon Stewart left for a two-week vacation. And, that Larry Craig did the same thing. And, that Bush did the same thing when he commuted Liddy’s sentence. Pretty sly, aye?

The rain that changed history?

The Hilo rain scared off Sarah Palin. As documented in the book Sarah, she – along with three of her friends – thought it would be a fabulous thing to go to college in Hawaii. They clearly did very little research about Hilo, expecting both warmth and sunshine. According to one member of the quartet, Tilly Ketchum, it rained for three weeks straight when they arrived (towards the end of August of 1982). "Once we got there, we hated it," she recalled. Sarah said of the experience: “"Rain was coming sideways, and I wondered what the heck I was doing out there.”

To get away from the rain, Palin and her friends quickly transferred to Hawaii Pacific University on Oahu. While it rained less there, they happened to go to college in the second rainiest year since records had been kept. (It is now the third rainiest year as 1994 took the lead.) So, ultimately, she decided she preferred cold to rain.

But, could it have been different if she happened to go a different year?

Here is a chart showing the amount of rain greeting our ignorant Sarah and her buddies. (School started on August 23rd. Therefore, I checked the records beginning on August 22 at this wonderful site. Click on the chart if the writing is too small for you to read. Remember, dear foreign readers, that 1 inch=2.5 cm)The first 10 days, the hapless foursome were pelted with 15" of rain. By contrast, we have been in Hilo for three months and have only received 14.74" of rain the entire time! What a contrast.

Hilo is exactly the “small town with good American values” kind of place Palin claims to treasure. (And, having spent time in both Wasilla and here - trust me, Hilo beats Wasilla for charm.) If she had the spectacularly good weather we have had, instead of the rotten weather she endured, don't you think that history might have been different?

Reader's recommendations

Why contributions are just pouring in from my readers!

By brother, Russ, recommended this blog from a math professor friend awhile back and wanted to share it. His particular favorites:

I highly recommend his entry "What Does Sarah Eat For Breakfast?" (on Palin), and for some insight into Ron "Cyrus Restaurant" (on food, eh), and "The Old Guard" (on baseball).

I generally enjoy Ron's fascination with Sarah Palin - something I share. I meant to blog about the Palin/turkey video but will let Ron speak for me instead.

If you are interested in legal issues from a rightist, libertarian (and intellectually honest) perspective, Ken Karst recommends this blog. But, I don’t expect this will constitute a large share of my readership. (Ken, by the way, is a liberal constitutional law professor.) Nonetheless, there it is.

My fabulous sister-in-law (and French professor) Laura says “this might not be blog worthy” mais au contraire! It is almost painful to listen to these two women baby-talk to a little hedgehog thrown into a bathtub. You may not want to view the full six and one half minutes of it. But, do catch the last minute at least….

Predictions - the day after

It turns out that he was completely right. Yes, we can!! How cool is that?? So, just a few predictions.

1. Obama sent an email to supporters before he went out for his speech last night. He thanked us and then he put us on notice that we have work to do and he plans to lead. : We have a lot of work to do to get our country back on track, and I'll be in touch soon about what comes next. Yes, he will be in touch! The great, mostly unwritten story of this election is the movement that brought him to power. As I have said in this blog before, all his work to build the organization was not simply to get elected President. It was to build a movement that would create change in America. He believes that change comes from the bottom, from the people. But, of course, a leader is also necessary to help channel that energy effectively. He has shown that he is that leader. And, he showed that it is possible to organize the USA as one community. So my prediction: In four years, people will fully appreciate that this is a movement with on-going political force and not just an election that has been won.

2. Bush will get the prize he has long sought. He will become Baseball Commissioner.

3. The Republicans will get far worse before they get better. Whoever wins the nomination in 2012 will continue to run too far to the right. Romney will be back and he will have the same problem as before. Palin will be back but so will Huckabee. And, I predict Jindal will be pushed forward as the great-not-white hope of the Republicans and will throw his hat into the ring. If you don't know who he is - it is time to read about him. (Summary: parents are Hindus from India; he is smart, young, Catholic, solid conservative and Louisiana governor.) Anyway, it should be very entertaining.

4. Ellen will cry on the first show taped after the election.

Top ten women of the election season

I love making lists. So, here is my top ten list of the woman who made this election season (two years!) more interesting, more compelling and better than ever before. This list is, more or less, in order of how happy the woman (and, in one case, women) made me.

1. Rachael Maddow. I am not a person who listens to radio. She has a show on Air America and was the break-out hit of that radio network. But, I first saw her in 2007 as a commentator on MSNBC during election nights. She was whip-smart and intellectually honest and funny. And really cute. MSNBC gave her a show that began in September. If you haven't watched her, check here.

2. Tina Fey. I don't think I need to say anything more. But here is my earlier tribute to her.

3. Gail Collins. New York Times columnist. (Thanks to Brian for continually asking me, "Have you read Gail Collins?") She is always sharp, funny but not (very) mean. (Unlike Dowd, who sometimes makes me laugh but almost always makes me cringe at the same time.) Check Gail out here.

4. Campbell Brown. For acting like a real journalist and insisting that "being objective" does not mean giving both sides of a story if one side is a complete fabrication. I first noticed her when she had this interview with Tucker Bounds, a spokesman for McCain. He wouldn't answer a question about Palin's qualifications and she didn't let him get away with it. But, then, she was given a show called No Bias, No Bull in which she does commentaries. They have been fantastic. She took on Arab-bashing in my favorite one. Watch here. By the way, her husband is a Republican consultant.

5. Donna Brazile. Unlike most Republican or Democratic "spinners" - she actually maintained intellectual honesty throughout the full campaign. While she never declared who she supported, I think it was clear that she had originally planned to support Clinton and after South Carolina primary changed to Obama. But, yet, she never made idiotic statements that didn't conform to the truth like, say, Paul Begala often did. If you don't know who she is, watch this.

6. Katie Couric. She really came through in her interview with Palin. Follow-up questions! What a novel idea.

7. The View. (Ok, it is four women but....) At a time where the press really wasn't going after McCain at all, they did. Watch here.

8. Kathleen Parker. A columnist for the conservative National Review. She wrote a column saying that Palin wasn't qualified and should leave the ticket voluntarily for the good of the Republican party. She had hell to pay for that column from the right - but she wrote several follow-up columns and didn't back down. Read here.

9. Hillary Clinton. This is a complicated one and deserves way more space. For now, I will just say that I do have a deep admiration for her and her accomplishments. And, because she made it a contest until the bitter end, Obama has a stronger campaign network. This is what Clinton claimed would happen and she has been proven correct. And, while Bill has been lukewarm in his support for Obama, Hillary has been great.

10. Sarah Palin. I have conflicted feelings about her, as well. If she didn't lie so much, I would actually really like her. But, I really have a problem with someone who can lie about so much so often. If you want to read all her lies, go to Andrew Sullivan's blog. But, she has sure made it one wild ride.

I reveal to you my choice for President 2016

So, everytime I see Palin, I think about All About Eve. Apparently, this is not a unique thought as I googled "All About Eve and Sarah Palin" and found that lots of bloggers have mentioned the similarity. For those not familiar with the plot, essentially Eve is an aspiring actress who quickly claws her way to the top by befriending, then discarding, people who help her along the way. This has been Palin's repeated pattern as well. Believe me, she is never going away!

To be more generous to Palin, her rise to the top has a lot of Legally Blond in it, too. (This thought is also not unique. Yes, google told me so.) The Elle Woods character, played wonderfully by Reese Witherspoon, is out of her league at Harvard, but because of supreme self-confidence and native smarts, she triumphs. There are a lot of people who think Palin is dumb. I am not one of them. She is clearly bright, just not well-educated or informed on most national or international topics (yet). But, she will be cramming and will certainly be ready for her close-up in 2012.

Speaking of movies, earlier in the election cycle, I really thought that Clinton and Tracy Flick, the lead character in the movie Election, (also played by Reese Witherspoon) had a lot in common. So did Slate magazine, who created this video to show the parallels between the two frustrated candidates.

Which brings me to my pick for the next Governor of California (and future President of the United States): Reese Witherspoon. Think about it. A combination of Tracy Flick/Elle Woods (with a little June Carter Cash thrown in to get those pesky "real American" votes) would be unstoppable. California likes to vote for movie stars with limited qualifications. Before becoming Governor, Reagan's experience consisted of being the President of the Screen Actor's Guild; Schwarzenegger's experience consisted of being chairman of the President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports.

So, what has Reese done? She is actively involved in children's and women's advocacy organizations. She serves on the board of the Children's Defense Fund (CDF), and was named Global Ambassador of Avon Products in 2007, serving as honorary chairman of the charitable Avon Foundation. Certainly that is enough for California.

Reese owns a film company called Type A Productions. I think this tells you that she is driven. She can clearly act, having won an Oscar for her portrayal as June Carter Cash. She is good-looking, which is always a plus. Her favorable ratings would be sky high, as she is well-loved by movie goers. She is smart (she was attending Stanford when her career took off and is "on leave"). She is an active Democrat - working for Obama this year.

Looking down the road, I am seeing a Palin-Witherspoon match in, say, 2016. While she lives in California now, her roots are Southern. She was born in New Orleans and was raised in Tennessee. Witherspoon already has way more international experience than Palin. She lived in Germany when she was young as her Dad was in the military. She has actually traveled around the world advocating for woman (the Avon global ambassador thing.) Here is one example. She's bona fide!

I look foward to the Palin/Witherspoon debate. And, yes, I think it is safe to say that this is a unique thought. But, I think it is a damn fine idea. Let's get the ball rolling: Witherspoon for Governor 2010! And President in 2016!

Obama optimism

While trying to guard against complacency, I must say that I am as certain as I can be three weeks out that we are going to win. Yes, yes, things can change. The famous "October surprise". But, I mentioned my confidence to a friend in an email who responded: "I'm not nearly as optimistic about Obama as you are, but that's because I'm a neurotic Jew who always sees the glass half empty." I responded to him with a version of the following.

The reason I think he is going to win is because of the state polls, which are all that matter. Where are Palin and McCain today literally? In Pennsylvania. And what do the state polls show there? Obama is ahead by double digits in all the polls (13.4). It is very, very difficult to make up double digit numbers in three weeks. I just don't believe they are going to flip Pennsylvania or any other state that went for Kerry. It isn't going to happen. Anyone want to bet against me?

As well, right now, Obama is ahead in virtually all the so-called battleground states. He is comfortably ahead in many states Bush won in 04: Iowa (11.3), New Mexico (7.3), Colorado (5.2), Florida (5) and Virginia (6.5). Beyond that, he is also a little ahead in Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. This list goes on and on and nothing is going McCain's way.

Basically, to have a prayer, McCain needs to spend all his time:

• shoring up the Bush states that he thought were cakewalks but are now slipping into Obama's column (West Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina)
• holding the line on Indiana where he leads narrowly
• attempt to get Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Florida to lean back red. (His economic proposal today is all about trying to get Florida back....)

Here is what I think is the best case scenario for a McCain road to victory: In it, he somehow manages to reverse all the following states that he is currently trailing in by less than 7 points: Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, Virgina and North Carolina. Plus, hold all the other states that are close: West Virginia, Indiana and Georgia. That would give him 274. Doable? Yes. Likely to hold every single one of those states? No.

This is what I think is a far, far more likely scenario:


And that scenario is that Obama holds all the states where he is leading today except Missouri and North Carolina. I actually think he could easily win both of those states - I was just trying to show you how hard the map is for McCain.

And, here is the best case scenario for an Obama win (which I think is actually far more likely than the best case McCain scenario):


If McCain has a prayer it is this: "Please lord, have Osama attack now! Or, at least, put out a tape in support of Obama. And please, please make this the biggest Bradley effect ever! Because, otherwise, I am just so over."

And speaking of The Bradley effect, I don't buy that the Bradley effect is going to be a big factor and if it is, it is going to be offset by these factors:

1. The amazing Obama ground game. See my post for more if you are interested: Obama's incredible organization. The Republicans - like Hillary Clinton before them - aren't even in the same ballpark this time.

2. The under-polled vote due to cellphones.

3. The polls underrepresenting "likely voters" - particularly blacks and youth.

By the way, the averages I used were from Real Clear Politics which has a right-lean to it. (It includes bad right-wing polling and excludes decent left-wing polling.) So, they are conservative numbers.

Am I saying, let's not do anything now? NO, of course not! But, am I saying that I think that the polls are real. YES! And, I don't see McCain making up that kind of ground for a number of reasons such as:

• He is wrong on the issues. Only 91% of Americans think we are on the wrong track. McCain was on that train.
  
• He is acting like an erratic idiot. Everyday a new drama. Mean in the first debate, wandering in the second debate. Even if he is pitch perfect in the third, the die is already cast.
  
• Sarah Palin is not helping. She did a lot herself to ratchet up those negatives, but I think Tina Fey really helped put the nail in her coffin. My take: The Tina Fey bounce
• The Republican establishment is already bailing out on him.
  
• He is campaigning in the wrong states.
  
• He doesn't have the money to compete (and that well is getting drier by the day).
• The RNC - who does have money - doesn't have the same message. Plus, they are about to send their money to the Senate elections because no one thinks he can come back.
  
• He is running one of the worst campaigns ever!
  
• Obama is running a very smart campaign.

We are going to win. But keep making calls! Keep working! Vote early (you might die in the meantime!). The larger the win, the easier for him to govern.

Empathy for Palin

Something has gone terribly wrong with Sarah Palin. Did you see the Couric interview? It was a complete and utter disaster for her. Thanks to the economic meltdown and McCain’s grandstanding, it hasn’t gotten the scrutiny it deserves yet. In fact, many people think that McCain’s act last week was an attempt to keep Palin’s interview out of the news cycle. However, the interview was so spectacularly bad – it will not go away. Ever. Absolutely, completely cringe-inducing. Watch it.

And, what has surprised me, I am beginning to feel really sorry for her. The NY Times Columnist, Judith Warner, describes similar feelings about Palin’s self-inflicted plight in a piece entitled “Poor Sarah”:
http://warner.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/poor-sarah/?ref=opinion

In a nutshell, Palin seems to have lost her greatest strength – her self-confidence. She was very hesitant, very unsure – stumbling through all the questions searching for the right soundbite. It was truly pathetic.

It was so pathetic that there are beginning to be some conservative grumblings that Palin should drop off the ticket after her self-destructive interview with Couric. Leading the pack is Kathleen Parker of the very conservative National Review. Her opinion: Palin “Is Clearly Out Of Her League”. http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDZiMDhjYTU1NmI5Y2MwZjg2MWNiMWMyYTUxZDkwNTE

So, what happened to her self-confidence? It seemed to be her defining characteristic. Christopher Orr at the New Republic thinks the McCain campaign broke her:
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/26/has-the-mccain-campaign-broken-sarah-palin.aspx

While I want her to stay broken – what can I say – I have empathy for her. But, I sleep much better!

The Tina Fey bounce

While the Republican convention bounce (aka Palin bounce) is not completely dead yet – the numbers are, again, moving in Obama’s direction. Most pundits are giving credit to the financial crisis for Obama’s poll uptick. But, something far more important happened to move those numbers: Palin’s interview with Gibson followed by the coup de grace: the SNL’s Palin/Clinton sketch.

Among other things, Palin had this to say about Russia: “They’re our next door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.” Within the context of the interview, it wasn’t quite a silly as it looks. But, it was widely quoted out of context – as reporters always do quite unfairly - and then it came out in the SNL sketch as:

Hillary Clinton character: I believe that diplomacy must be the cornerstone of any foreign policy.
Sarah Palin character: And, I can see Russia from my house.

This was the defining moment for her. Is it any wonder her poll numbers are plummeting from their earlier highs?

This is the stuff that moves elections. Which can be quite horrifying. But in this case, it seems relatively fair.

And, hey, wasn’t Tina Fey awesome?

Menopause and Palin don't go together well

According to one website devoted to anxiety disorders: Hormone imbalances during menopause can create the environment where you are more susceptible to anxiety disorders, but, not everyone develops anxiety or panic attacks so other factors must come into play.

That factor, for me, is Sarah Palin or, rather, the reaction to Sarah Palin from the heavily manipulated masses.

Since her selection, whenever I wake up at night, she pops into my mind and mood-alerting hormones surge through my body. Anxiety takes over. Fear courses through my body. Sleep eludes me. Finally, I calm myself and go back to sleep. But, the cycle repeats three or four times a night.

It is not that Palin particularly bothers me as a human being. She seems pretty cool in a lot of ways. And I love Alaska and Alaskans! Of course, she is way to the right of me and I doubt that we would agree on most policy matters. But that is not why I am having panic attacks. The problem is, she hasn’t thought about most policy matters – foreign and domestic. At all! And, about half the country doesn’t even seem to care. At all! This is just horrifying to me. This is what keeps me up at night.

The prime example, of course, is that she has said that she hasn’t thought much about the Iraq war (even though her son is being deployed there this week) except that “it is a task from God” and that she hopes that “there is a plan”. If she hasn’t thought about Iraq – I think it should be quite evident that she has no meaningful thoughts about any foreign matters. Potentially, one heartbeat away and no meaningful thoughts about our relationship to the world!

To compare Palin with Obama (or Biden or Clinton) is to insult the intelligence of any thinking human being.

And, that is just what the McCain campaign is doing. And, an amazing number of people are buying it. They don’t seem insulted at all! Instead, they are insulted by people like me pointing out how deeply cynical and horrifying this pick really is on multiple levels. This anti-intellectual, anti-rational reaction to Palin makes me truly worry about the future of our nation.

And all these damn menopausal hormone imbalances aren’t helping either.