Obama optimism

While trying to guard against complacency, I must say that I am as certain as I can be three weeks out that we are going to win. Yes, yes, things can change. The famous "October surprise". But, I mentioned my confidence to a friend in an email who responded: "I'm not nearly as optimistic about Obama as you are, but that's because I'm a neurotic Jew who always sees the glass half empty." I responded to him with a version of the following.

The reason I think he is going to win is because of the state polls, which are all that matter. Where are Palin and McCain today literally? In Pennsylvania. And what do the state polls show there? Obama is ahead by double digits in all the polls (13.4). It is very, very difficult to make up double digit numbers in three weeks. I just don't believe they are going to flip Pennsylvania or any other state that went for Kerry. It isn't going to happen. Anyone want to bet against me?

As well, right now, Obama is ahead in virtually all the so-called battleground states. He is comfortably ahead in many states Bush won in 04: Iowa (11.3), New Mexico (7.3), Colorado (5.2), Florida (5) and Virginia (6.5). Beyond that, he is also a little ahead in Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. This list goes on and on and nothing is going McCain's way.

Basically, to have a prayer, McCain needs to spend all his time:

• shoring up the Bush states that he thought were cakewalks but are now slipping into Obama's column (West Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina)
• holding the line on Indiana where he leads narrowly
• attempt to get Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Florida to lean back red. (His economic proposal today is all about trying to get Florida back....)

Here is what I think is the best case scenario for a McCain road to victory: In it, he somehow manages to reverse all the following states that he is currently trailing in by less than 7 points: Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, Virgina and North Carolina. Plus, hold all the other states that are close: West Virginia, Indiana and Georgia. That would give him 274. Doable? Yes. Likely to hold every single one of those states? No.

This is what I think is a far, far more likely scenario:


And that scenario is that Obama holds all the states where he is leading today except Missouri and North Carolina. I actually think he could easily win both of those states - I was just trying to show you how hard the map is for McCain.

And, here is the best case scenario for an Obama win (which I think is actually far more likely than the best case McCain scenario):


If McCain has a prayer it is this: "Please lord, have Osama attack now! Or, at least, put out a tape in support of Obama. And please, please make this the biggest Bradley effect ever! Because, otherwise, I am just so over."

And speaking of The Bradley effect, I don't buy that the Bradley effect is going to be a big factor and if it is, it is going to be offset by these factors:

1. The amazing Obama ground game. See my post for more if you are interested: Obama's incredible organization. The Republicans - like Hillary Clinton before them - aren't even in the same ballpark this time.

2. The under-polled vote due to cellphones.

3. The polls underrepresenting "likely voters" - particularly blacks and youth.

By the way, the averages I used were from Real Clear Politics which has a right-lean to it. (It includes bad right-wing polling and excludes decent left-wing polling.) So, they are conservative numbers.

Am I saying, let's not do anything now? NO, of course not! But, am I saying that I think that the polls are real. YES! And, I don't see McCain making up that kind of ground for a number of reasons such as:

• He is wrong on the issues. Only 91% of Americans think we are on the wrong track. McCain was on that train.
  
• He is acting like an erratic idiot. Everyday a new drama. Mean in the first debate, wandering in the second debate. Even if he is pitch perfect in the third, the die is already cast.
  
• Sarah Palin is not helping. She did a lot herself to ratchet up those negatives, but I think Tina Fey really helped put the nail in her coffin. My take: The Tina Fey bounce
• The Republican establishment is already bailing out on him.
  
• He is campaigning in the wrong states.
  
• He doesn't have the money to compete (and that well is getting drier by the day).
• The RNC - who does have money - doesn't have the same message. Plus, they are about to send their money to the Senate elections because no one thinks he can come back.
  
• He is running one of the worst campaigns ever!
  
• Obama is running a very smart campaign.

We are going to win. But keep making calls! Keep working! Vote early (you might die in the meantime!). The larger the win, the easier for him to govern.